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QuakeFinder: Against All Odds

January 16, 2020.

A recent story about QuakeFinder in the LA Times conveyed the many obstacles that Stellar Solutions has faced over the past two decades in our quest to definitively prove electromagnetic precursors to earthquakes. And in spite of these numerous and significant scientific, technical, political and financial hurdles, we have made tremendous headway toward this noble, long-term goal that could benefit countless lives.

It is important to remember that science is a journey. The article compares our experience to the search for extraterrestrial intelligence and the hunt for the meaning of earthquake lights, and we’ll add that this endeavor is very much like many of the grandest challenges in human history – achieving heavier than air powered flight, the race to space, mapping the human genome, and effective treatments for devastating diseases from polio and cholera to smallpox, HIV and cancer. It’s the nature of innovation: we have achieved a great deal in many areas but in others we still have a ways to go.

While the financial obligation and constraints inherent in this important work have not been overstated, we must elaborate on QuakeFinder’s recent and compelling technical achievements as well as a path forward with partners that can only serve to continue and leverage the significant progress made.

Yes, Stellar Solutions spent big to see if there are electromagnetic precursors to large earthquakes. And yes, they do exist! Our research attempted to prove that electromagnetic signals (in this case magnetic pulses) exist in the days prior to earthquakes larger than M4.0.

A 5.9 magnitude earthquake rattled Puerto Rico on January 11. Image credit: CNN

The research efforts involved developing algorithms that could find these small signals from 70 Terabytes of data collected from our national network of sensors from 2005 to 2018. The results published late last year in a peer-reviewed journal (Computers and Geosciences) found that for earthquakes larger than M4.0 and within about 40 km of a magnetometer instrument, a measurable increase in magnetic fluctuations occurred in the window 4-12 days prior to the earthquakes. Rigorous statistical methods were used and, in one case, QuakeFinder achieved a 2.86 sigma confidence threshold on these results—or saying it another way—the odds of getting our results if there really is no correlation were only 1 in 475 (0.2%). This suggests that the increased electromagnetic activity does precede earthquakes and is not just experimental happenstance or unrelated to the earthquake process. We are not aware of any other similar research study of this size and scope, nor one that has been formally published or achieved this level of certainty.

Now the challenge is to refine the algorithms to discriminate the unusual activity from the large amount of background noise (e.g. BART trains, lightning, solar storms, and other man-made magnetic noise). To do this, we need funding and partners.

While our research did not specifically focus on earthquake lights, we developed a hypothesis that if there are deep underground electrical activity (e.g. large currents released prior to earthquakes), perhaps very sensitive induction magnetometers might be able to detect these current surges. Today, after 20 years of building a network of very sensitive induction magnetometers, which are spaced about every 20 miles along the faults, QuakeFinder finally had enough data and earthquake events to test the hypothesis.

And QuakeFinder is no longer alone in this effort. Researchers in Japan (Han and Hattori) did a similar analysis over a decade in a relatively quiet area, removed from electric trains and during the night when the trains were not operating. They too found statistical evidence of both magnetic pulses and longer disturbances in the 2 weeks prior to earthquakes.

The quest for accurate earthquake forecasting is an extraordinarily difficult and unprecedented task–far larger than what a single, small aerospace company can afford. It is true that Stellar Solutions is “hitting the pause button” and reducing staff to a minimum level, after having spent approximately $30M over 20 years building the network of sensors and developing these initial algorithms. But, all of this is far from our last contribution to this cause or the end of the QuakeFinder story.

We are hopeful that the initial published QuakeFinder research results, as well as corroborating results in Japan (and soon possibly, China) will attract other funding from either private or government sources, to continue and advance the effort. Better results may occur with the application of Artificial Intelligence techniques. We expect at least one such data mining company to publish their initial results using the QuakeFinder magnetometer data sometime this spring.  And our work and methods have application to other areas of societal benefit as shown by our recent selection as a final winner in a federal competition for the World Magnetic Model. The never-ending struggle and adventure of science can be fraught with risk and uncertainty. However, its discoveries, breakthroughs and possibilities have the potential to change everything that we know and care about for the better. We look forward to this continuing journey!

Written by admin · Categorized: Uncategorized

Celeste Ford Named a Winner of 2020 Enterprising Women of the Year Award

January 10, 2020.

In March, Celeste Ford will be honored at the 2020 Enterprising Women of the Year Awards, an annual tribute to the world’s top female entrepreneurs.

This award is widely considered one of the most esteemed recognitions for women business owners. The presentations will take place at a Gala Dinner during the final evening of the 18th Annual Enterprising Women of the Year Awards Celebration & Conference, to be held at the Wyndham Clearwater Beach Resort in Florida from Sunday, March 29 to Tuesday, March 31. 

“Celeste Ford demonstrates the leadership qualities of our Enterprising Women of the Year:  as Founder and Board Chair of a successful company, as a passionate mentor of women and girls on the path to entrepreneurship, and as a committed contributor to her community, the nation and the world,” said Monica Smiley, Publisher and CEO of Enterprising Women magazine.

Celeste was one of only four honorees in the “over $50 million in annual sales” category. This is a great recognition of Celeste’s leadership as the company enters its 25th year of operation.

Read Stellar’s Press Release here: https://www.prweb.com/releases/stellar_solutions_chair_celeste_ford_named_a_winner_of_the_2020_enterprising_women_of_the_year_awards/prweb16824339.htm

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We Choose to Go to the Moon

December 20, 2019.

As we enter a new year and decade as a company, community and nation, it is a good time to reflect on the collective achievements and lessons that will guide our path forward. The avenue of space exploration continues to provide many of our greatest examples of both – with countless instances of courage, ingenuity and resilience that continue to define the course of human history.

Credit: NASA

Today’s landmark mission of Boeing’s Starliner spacecraft is a vivid reminder of this incredible challenge that we all face. Starliner successfully lifted off on its first test flight to the International Space Station, but failed to reach an operational orbit. As said so eloquently by President John F. Kennedy as he kicked off the space race of the 1960s, “We choose to go to the Moon in this decade and do the other things, not because they are easy, but because they are hard…”  

Space has always been an incredibly hard thing to do. NASA experienced this immediately during the Apollo Program but persevered toward to the ultimate achievement of the Apollo 11 landing on the lunar surface. More recently, we have observed the efforts of New Space companies like SpaceX as they lean-in, innovate, learn and adjust course along the way toward groundbreaking success.

At Stellar Solutions, we can relate to this inherent risk because we’ve experienced it firsthand. This company was founded to provide the critical services that form the backbone of many of today’s aerospace, defense, intelligence and commercial systems.

Credit: NASA

We are providing a wide variety of engineering support for the Orion Crew Module and the Ascent Abort-2, Artemis-1 and Artemis-2 missions of the Space Launch System which will extend our presence beyond Earth’s orbit into deep space. Our team is heavily involved in providing program level support to NASA in its efforts to work with commercial partners on systems that will send the first woman and next man to the Moon. What an exciting time to be in aerospace, with so many opportunities and possibilities to help transform our way of life and understanding of the universe. 

Kennedy continued on to say that the goal of pursuing the Moon “will serve to organize and measure the best of our energies and skills, because that challenge is one that we are willing to accept, one we are unwilling to postpone, and one we intend to win, and the others, too.”

These words still ring true today, more than ever. In celebrating the 50th anniversary of Apollo 11 this year and looking forward to the next five decades of human spaceflight, it is clear that we are all in this together – partners and competitors alike. So many small and large companies have dedicated themselves to delivering innovation on the ground and in space that will benefit all of humanity, with much more to come. I wish to extend our gratitude and best wishes for success to The Boeing Company and other commercial trailblazers who are helping lead the way to the next era of space exploration.

About the Author: Michael S. Lencioni is the Chief Executive Officer of Stellar Solutions, Inc.

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QuakeFinder Earthquake Forecasting Research Is Published

November 14, 2019.

Stellar Solutions and its humanitarian R&D initiative QuakeFinder have just published landmark research on earthquake forecasting in Computers & Geosciences, the peer-reviewed academic journal.

The study, which examines electromagnetic earthquake precursors covering the major faults in California from 2005 to 2018, advances QuakeFinder’s research into predictive indications in Earth’s magnetic field that may be identified several days prior to an earthquake. The manuscript, “An algorithmic framework for investigating the temporal relationship of magnetic field pulses and earthquakes applied to California,”  completed peer review and received final acceptance for immediate online and print publication at https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cageo.2019.104317.

To our knowledge, this is the largest ever study of electromagnetic earthquake precursors. The treated data set exceeds prior published research by over an order of magnitude, and suggests, with 98.6% (2.2 sigma) confidence, that the magnetic field exhibits precursory behavior in the period of four to 12 days prior to earthquakes. This paper represents a major step forward in the challenge faced by QuakeFinder to conclusively demonstrate the existence of these precursor signals and then work toward isolation that will allow individual earthquakes to be forecast. While this approach is not yet accurate enough to forecast individual quakes, research indicates that results will improve with enhanced signal processing. Prior warning based on seismic observations currently comes only seconds before earthquakes that kill and injure thousands of people and cause billions of dollars in damage every year. 

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Read the full press release here: https://www.prweb.com/releases/stellar_solutions_quakefinder_earthquake_forecasting_research_is_published/prweb16718663.htm .

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Satellite Systems Protection – A National Priority

November 9, 2019

The Worldwide Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community in February 2018 indicated that “Adversaries and malign actors will use all instruments of national power—including information and cyber means—to shape societies and markets, international rules and institutions, and international hot spots to their advantage,” and that “China and Russia will seek spheres of influence and to check US appeal and influence in their regions.”

There are few greater spheres of influence than the areas of space inhabited by numerous orbiting assets of nation-state, non-state, and commercial space organizations for services and information, such as “imagery, weather, communications, and positioning, navigation, and timing for intelligence, military, scientific, or business purposes.”

In August 2018, Vice President Mike Pence spoke to a Pentagon audience about the Future of the U.S. Military in Space, and described the uncertainty surrounding space capabilities being developed by foreign nations.  He said, “Our adversaries have been working to bring new weapons of war into space itself.  In 2007, China launched a missile that tracked and destroyed one of its own satellites — a highly provocative demonstration of China’s growing capability to militarize space.

“Russia has been designing an airborne laser to disrupt our space-based system.  And it claims to be developing missiles that can be launched from an aircraft mid-flight to destroy American satellites.

“Both China and Russia have been conducting highly sophisticated on-orbit activities that could enable them to maneuver their satellites into close proximity of ours, posing unprecedented new dangers to our space systems.”

This specific public acknowledgement of this space protection problem (also see CHALLENGES TO SECURITY IN SPACE – Defense Intelligence Agency) was an important moment for our nation.  In response to these concerns, the United States established several new organizations; specifically, United States Space Command (USSPACECOM), and Joint Task Force-Space Defense (JTF-SD).   JTF-SD is one of two subordinate commands to USSPACECOM which was recently formed with a mission to conduct, in unified action with mission partners, space superiority operations to deter aggression, defend capability, and defeat adversaries throughout the continuum of conflict. JTF-SD executes its protect and defend mission through its operations center, the National Space Defense Center, space domain awareness units and emerging space defense units.

Continuity of Operations and Space Protection & Resiliency are an important focus that will help ensure the long-term physical and cyber security of our nation and its allies. At Stellar Solutions, we believe that the space environment is at a critical juncture where we need to do more than “move the needle” – we must transcend our space protection capabilities to “capture the high ground” and ensure the security of national assets ahead of threats. Stellar Solutions has placed increased emphasis on this critical mission domain with associated resources made available through our pool of exemplary subject matter experts.

All of this is a fundamental part of enabling clients to innovate successfully–providing deep industry knowledge through nimble, handpicked teams of strategists, systems and aerospace engineers, and technical specialists.  These best practices are based on a committed focus on the critical needs of customers including the Department of Defense and other key Government agencies, and providing instrumental support in this vital mission area over the past 10 years.  Embracing Agile methodologies and supporting accelerated fulfillment of products and processes facilitates the delivery of high-impact performance on Earth and in space. As the Vice President noted, there are countless individuals within military, civilian and commercial organizations striving to maintain and secure the nation’s space systems. Working together to combine this diverse expertise will enable the nation to successfully “confront the emerging threats in the boundless expanse of space”.

About the authors: 

  • Walt Eilers is Vice President, Intel, at Stellar Solutions, Inc. He served almost 23 years in the United States Air Force, with over 38 years leading space and ground intelligence and communication system programs. Walt leads a diverse team providing Acquisition, System Engineering and Integration, Command and Control, and Ops support to major space and ground systems. He also oversees Intel business development and resource management for Stellar. 
  • Dave Rose is a Senior Systems Engineer for Stellar Solutions and a recognized space protection expert.  Dave supports critical missions for Intel customers and is at the forefront of delivering key technical advice to the space community.

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